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Expect rangebound moves ahead

Friday, April 20, 2007

The market ended on an extremely positive note on the back of buying seen in scrips across sectors. Asian markets also witnessed a come back and ended in the green. A strong set of numbers and some encouraging guidance from IT majors Satyam and Wipro, acted in the markets favour. India Cements’ numbers were above street expectations and Gujarat Ambuja came in with inline results.

On the macro-economic front, inflation numbers came in above expectations at 6.09%. But markets shrugged off concerns after initial jitters and clawed back.

The midcap and smallcap index ended in the green but frontliners outperformed the broader markets. The breadth was positive with higher volume. HDFC, Satyam, Tata Steel were star performers with each of them up over 5.5%. All BSE sector indices closed in green with the metal index leading the uptrend due to surge in metal prices. The oil and gas, and IT and capital goods index ended significantly higher.

On a weekly basis, the Sensex and Nifty ended up 4% and 4.2%, respectively.

Dipan Mehta, Member, BSE and NSE, said, "We have had a great session and what I am observing, is that basically the market is following similar trends. What happens every time the earning season starts prior to a major correction? After a sharp correction in May, there was a strong recovery on the back of June quarter corporate numbers. We had a correction in December and when the January earning season started, we saw prices recovering with market trading at higher levels.”

He adds that the market focus is shifting to results from global issues now.

He says, "The focus is clearly shifting away from global markets, inflation, interest rates, oil price concerns and slowdown in consumer spending to the results on hand. So far companies have been declaring a phenomenonal set of numbers, which are above market expectations. That’s the major highlight which I observed."

Milind Pradhan, Head of Equities, UTI Securities, said, “I would not say it’s a good level to sell because if you see indices across the world, quite a few of them have crossed the previous tops. Today we are faced with a situation where inflation has again slipped back and interest rates have been going up. There is a possibility that the US economy could slowdown further from here. On the other hand, we are seeing money that has been coming into the equity markets."

He adds that the markets will now remain in a rangebound position.

"This is a liquidity driven market. It’s always possible that our markets could possibly cross their previous highs, the way a few other markets have gone up. It does not mean that I am very bullish on the market because today the markets are quoting around 17 times their 2008 earnings, which is definitely not cheap. I would say that the markets are going to be rangebound and it may cross their previous highs. It is a kind of a market where whenever it falls sharply you get in and whenever it goes up you sell. Otherwise it’s very difficult to survive in this market,” he says.

Posted by FR at 6:20 PM  

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Investment in equity shares has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective.The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. I, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and I am not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.& take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations given in this blog.