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Weekly close: RBI proposes; Reliance desposes

Saturday, April 28, 2007

Great week with many calls providing marvelous gains. Wow calls, our
research based services had great week with RTS Power, 3i Infotech and Asian
Elec calls which were booked partially with great gains and Indotech
Transformer, Wockhardt calls were closed with superb gains. Quickies firing
call on Tata Coffee which was closed with over 10% gains in one day which
was followed by Jet Airways, TTML call by VJ and then Lok Housing, Unitech
which were booked partially with fantastic gains rather quickly. Delivery
Delights managed by Adonis splendid with call on Bank of India providing
over 40k per contract in less than a weeks time and Siemens short was a
bullet call. BTST by VJ was marvelous with NDTV, VSNL, Bom Dyeing, ITC and
Bajaj Auto which all delivered super profits. The interesting part is the
consistency of these services and eve more important is the discipline.

Credit policy gave the markets wings this week ahead of FNO expiry.. but
Reliance nipped them ; Oil companies seeing interest

Markets closed flat this week after turning the tables on sentiment twice
over. It was the global positives which had many markets scaling all time
highs. This was fuelled by an appreciating Rupee which brought in even more
flows. Its been the result flows which are driving up specific stock
movement. However, the key story this week was the credit policy which had
the markets taking wings. There was no hike in CRR and no tinkering with the
provisions. Markets seemingly and surprisingly were worried about a rate
hike. We had been saying for some time that nothing was to come as the CRR
hike implementation is still to be implemented this week end and the fact
that it impacts with a lag. The Rupee continued to appreciate hitting a 9
year high and is now close to $ 40 and headed there given the FII flows
which were very very strong.

Inflation number again is above 6% and thats becoming a concern. Markets are
reacting to that and also the Reliance net profit numbers. Reliance had been
rallying in anticipation of super profits but the numbers were just in line.
The valuation for Reliance is now pricing in optimism from its retail
initiatives, SEZ and also the gas find. However, Reliance was the big man
down as the stock came in for profit taking on the disappointment. Steel
stocks had a ball of a time this week but these gains fizzled out by the end
of the week.

There is a view that with UP elections coming to an end on May 8th, the
Government will either cut excise duty on fuels or raise fuel prices. That
had the rally in HPCL, BPCL and IOC. It was the MNC power stocks which
rallied. ABB posted decent numbers and that had the stock running.The change
in accounting policy added to the positives. Siemens numbers were not bad
but the stock had fallen ahead of that brought in short covering. There was
also talk of buybacks this week. Alfa Laval is well above its offer price of
Rs 875,. Mico had an open offer at Rs 4000.

Sensex closed almost flat this week ending at 13908. The gainers of the
Nifty this week included ABB +7%, Bharat Petroleum +4%, Oriental Bank
10%,PNB +4%, Ranbaxy +8%, Zee +7%, Tata Power +7%, Tata Motors +4%, Siemens
+10%, There were many which were down but the big one was MTNL was down 8%
and also Cipla down 7%.Research works all the way through the week. Asian
Electronics, Indotech, RTS Power, Wockhardt, Castrol, SKF and more !

Asian Electronics was a wow call we booked this week within 4 days of the
call with over 8% gains. The company has businesses related to energy saving
equipment. This includes capacitors leased earlier to states and now the
retrofit tubelights which saves significant energy. The reports are that the
company will post extremely bouyant numbers helped by a new product in the
energy space. The proof is in the pudding while our clients enjoyed super
profits in the wow calls.

Indo Tech transformers was a wow call we booked this week with over 10%
gains and two calls really. The company is into transformers and given the
demand supply situation here, the company has done extremely well. We were
cautious ahead of the numbers. Another wow call which brought in profits for
clients. RTS power was another one booked in the transformer space. Our wow
calls have the certainty levels of good research that they will deliver.

We booked Castrol this week in wow calls. Castrol is an old time blue chip
and one time component of the Sensex. however, higher crude had taken the
bite out of the company as it struggled to pass on the increased raw
material prices. The company benefits from an appreciating rupee as most
base stock is imported. The company is more of an FMCG play and could see
more gains in the next couple of months. Keep watch. Part of the call is
still open. Our clients had to wait some time but then the returns in the
uncertain environment were worth it.

We booked India Cement this week with good gains as well. We had a research
initiated on it couple of weeks ago and that has delivered. We covered
results too. Do read them. Among the wow calls also we booked Wockhardt
another pharma company.. which we dont need to say much about. SKF was a
research note carried couple of months ago and the stock is up almost 50%..
We had a wow call and that covered up a significant part of that gains.
Clearly.. Wow calls is something which clients would do well to subscribe to
with an investment viewpoint. We pick the entry points and more importantly
tell you when to exit.Technically support at 13730; Macro scenario not
comforting; Better to take profits off the table play safe ! Try out our
calls.

Technically Speaking: Wow had a technical view given for targets of 14390
and that was indicated quite often. That was where the Sensex actually has
turned from. Technically 13726 are support levels and thats where the
markets could see next week. The bias is down.

We are concerned on the gains in the global markets and Indian markets
rallying in imitation. Crude is close to $ 65 and that will have its impact
on inflation. Higher fuel prices are on cards unless Government decides to
cut excise. In such a scenario the risk of another interest rate has
increased. The RBI has indicated the tolerance for inflation to 4.5% and
that means that they could go overboard to do this. We maintain that it
would be good to take some cash of the table for now. Better to play safe !

Posted by FR at 8:29 PM  

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Investment in equity shares has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective.The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. I, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and I am not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.& take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations given in this blog.