Rajat K Bose, rajatkbose.com

The price chart pattern suggests that Nifty should be able to cross the 4140-4170 range in a day or two, else it falls below 4100 to test those lower levels close 4050 – 4030 again.

The Nifty is still range bound and has so far not managed to cross 4140 – 4170 supply zone despite several attempts. Now, it is at a crucial situation. The price chart pattern suggests that it should be able to cross that range in a day or two, else it falls below 4100 to test those lower levels close 4050 – 4030 again. However, now it needs to cross--with lot of buying volume across sectors—the level of 4160 then the supplies above that up to 4180 would also dry up. It would then make a beeline to test the final resistance zone between 4217 and 4245 on its way to testing a fresh all time high. This is the reason why the index is at a crucial juncture; any failure to achieve this quick enough would exhaust all its gumption and it would have to go down again to gather steam.

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Book profits on index based stocks and on Nifty when the Sensex moves in range of 13934-14067-14189. Re-enter long positions in index based stocks or in Nifty on Sensex close above 14189.

Struggle at higher levels to continue By Hitendra Vasudeo

In last week's update, we had indicated that the Sensex will struggle at higher levels and which is exactly what was witnessed last week. Last week, the Sensex opened at 14044.71, registered a high at 14067.71, fell down to a low of 13554.34 and closed the week at 13796.16 and thereby showed a net fall of 138 points on a week-to-week basis. Last week, was the drama of recovery from lower levels and failure to sustain at higher levels, which truly reflected the struggle of the Sensex anticipated by this column.

The weekly trend has turned down after the weekly fall below 13693. The weekly trend can turn up on rise above 14189 and on Friday’s weekly close above 13884. Weekly resistance will be at 13976-14067-14189-14383. Weekly support will be at 13693-13554.

The Sensex last week kept bouncing from the retracement level of 13635. The retracement of the rise from 12481 to 14383 was placed at 13635-13404- 13173. Against this, the Sensex made a low of 13554. In case of further fall and close below 13554, expect a slide down to 13400 at least and to an outer extent to 13173.

During the week, if the Sensex does not fall and violate 13500 and subsequently crosses the resistance one by one, then expect the top to be tested. But the Sensex would keep struggling at higher levels even on strong recoveries from lower levels.

Strategy for the week Book profits on index based stocks and on the Nifty when the Sensex moves in the range of 13934-14067-14189. Re-enter long positions in index based stocks or in Nifty on Sensex close above 14189. Traders who are already long can maintain a stop loss of 13500 for index based stocks and Nifty.

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Anil Manghnani,Modern Shares & Stock Brokers

If Sensex & Nifty can close above 14067 & 4127 respectively, then one can expect indices to retest their recent highs and even attempt to test the all time highs. However, it is imperative that the supports of 13547 & 3965 are held for the highs to be tested.

The markets are currently trading in a range with a slightly higher negative bias as the Indices have been making lower tops and bottoms within this trading range. The volatility has once again increased with the Indices swinging violently in both directions on an intra day basis. Although, the Indian market did follow the trend of markets globally, and thus we had a significant rally last month, in the past couple of weeks we have bucked the global trend and have witnessed sustained selling pressure at higher levels. In addition, our Indices have not been able to make new highs like other global markets, which suggest that domestic factors such as rising interest rates and an appreciating rupee remain a concern.

However all is not lost. The two major indices did take support at crucial levels of 13547 (SENSEX) and 3965 (NIFTY – the Nifty touched 3981) on Friday. As long as these supports are held this week, we can expect a bounce. On this bounce if the Sensex & Nifty can close above 14067 & 4127 respectively, then one can expect the indices to retest their recent highs and may even attempt to test the all time highs. However, it is imperative that the supports of 13547 & 3965 are held for the highs to be tested.