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Will the nightmare continue for the Nifty trader?
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
The Indian markets, on the charts, have looked very toppish or seemed as if they are going to fall down. So, technically, our markets have been bearish. On the other hand, the global markets have been extremely strong.
Atul Suri of Marathon Trends says the challenge of trading the broad market has been on for the last 4-5 months.
His explanation is that all the Asian markets and European markets have been doing very well. The Dow is also at a lifetime high. But in this scenario, there is actually a conflict of sorts taking place. While our markets are showing some weakness, global markets are so strong that they don't let the market fall. Our market is caught in a strangle.
Which is why, trading on the Nifty or on macros is very challenging. The frustration also rises from the comparison with global markets. At one glance, the Shanghai Composite Index is up from 1,000 to 4,000 in just 1.5 years. On the graph, it almost reflects a 90-degree move, which is something found in the likes of midcaps and penny stocks, this being the Index of the second largest economy in the world.
Apart from the breakouts and the frustrations, the underperformance, in comparison to global markets, is shocking.
So from that perspective, the nightmare is further compounded by the swinging Nifty, where we've gone down to 4,030 and the resistance is at 4,180. A breakout on either side would give us a trading range. Which is why, trading on Nifty and on macros is going to be very challenging and the nightmare will continue for the Nifty trader.