GMR Infrastructures June 2007 futures most active

The Nifty June 2007 futures settled at 4242.40, a discount of 17 points compared to spot closing of 4,259.40.

Volatility is expected to stay on over the next few days ahead of the expiry of the June 2007 derivatives contracts on Thursday, 28 June 2007.

GMR Infrastructures June 2007 futures settled at a premium, at 662.40, compared to the spot closing of Rs 662. It was the top traded contract with turnover of Rs 1212.08 crore.

Reliance Industries (RIL) June 2007 futures settled at a premium, at 1713.10, compared to the spot closing of Rs 1708.50.

SBI June 2007 futures settled at a sharp premium, at 1465.25, compared to the spot closing of Rs 1447.10

However Reliance Energy June 2007 futures settled at a discount, at 592.45, compared to the spot closing of Rs 594.15.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty rose 7.35 points or 0.17% at 4,259.40. It had struck an all time high of 4,362.95, on 4 June 2007.



F&O Action:

-Turnover at Rs 40,264.2 cr vs Rs 37,941.31 cr on Friday
-Top traded: GMR Infra, SBI, RIL, Rel Comm, L&T, Bharti
-Nifty future discount widens to 20 points
-S Kumars Jul adds 7.7 lakh shares in OI; rollover 71%
-Satyam Jul adds 25.6 lakh shares in OI; rollover 58%
-Bharat Forge Jul adds 11.3 lakh shares in OI; rollover 58%
-Ambuja Cem Jul adds 32.4 lakh shares in OI; rollover 54%
-Union Bank Jul adds 18.5 lakh shares in OI; rollover 53%
-Jindal Stainless Jul adds 16.5 lakh shares in OI; rollover 52%
-ICICI Bank Jul adds 20 lakh shares in OI; rollover 49%




Nifty future adds 11 lakh shares in June; adds 37.5 lakh shares in July OI

The Nifty future discount has widened to around 20 points (includes 7-8 points due to dividend). Nifty Futures added 11 lakh shares in June; added 37.5 lakh shares in July OI. Short rollovers were seen in July series. There was carry over of short positions for Auto, Tech stocks. Mid cap cement stocks were active in F&O.

Strong rollovers were seen in banking (ICICI bank, UBI, IndusInd Bank), Cement (Ambuja Cement, Ultratech, Grasim) & Steel (JSW Steel, Jindal, Sesa Goa). Others biggies with strong rollover included Satyam, Aban Offshore and ITC.




F&O: Discount in June series around 16 pts, turnover around Rs 15,000 Cr against total turnover of around Rs 20,000 Cr

The discount in the June series is around 16 points and the turnover has been picking up, it’s around Rs 15,000 crore in the F&O side against a total turnover of around Rs 20,000 crore. But discounts the one at which we are having a close look is around 16 points in the June series and there are short rollovers, which are happening in the July series. There is carry over of short positions for the auto and tech space. So there are the spaces, which are under pressure. But talking specifically for today, there is good amount of rollover and also long additions, which are seen in midcap cement stocks, which we have been discussing since morning.

Reliance Petro is up over 3% in today’s market it has seen rollovers, which are strong in the market, which is around 31%. There is a cut of around 7 lakh shares in the June series but also an addition of around 47 lakh in the July series. And so the net Open Interest is up by around 36 lakh shares.

Another stock from the midcap, which is Ballarpur Industries has seen long additions in June as well as in the July series. The stock is up nearly 6% in today’s trade and rollovers at around 12%. In the June series there is an addition of around 10 lakh shares and in the July series around 2 lakh shares. So net-net there is long additions happening in Ballarpur.

In Birla Corp there is a strong rollover, which is happening around 42%, the stock has cut around 76,000 shares in June series. But in July series, which is important, there is an addition of around 1.3 lakh shares there.

Kesoram has seen a strong addition in July series, where it is around 3.5 lakh shares and the rollover is around 35%. So this is one space that is in focus today.

On the flipside there is Praj Industries, where the stock is down around 5% in today’s trade, some short positions, which have been created in the stock on some exits by various big investors in the stock and also the management selling some share. The rollover is around 27%, but the short positions quite clearly being created in Praj Industries.



Rollover expected to remain volatile & ranged owing to speculative long positions in futures against long existing short positions: IDBI

In its report, IDBI says, as per its expectation the markets undergo a correction, but not a sharp one, supported by liquidity and short futures. Rollover is expected to remain volatile and ranged owing to speculative long positions in futures against long existing short positions.

Aggressive long positions that have started accumulating in the next month series will stand as resistance to the markets. Option premium remains below average - expectation of a narrowly ranged market. FIIs built up short positions in futures over the month, while remaining net positive in cash segment, IDBI adds.

Aggressive long positions in the July series are a matter of concern, which will act as a resistance going forward. At the same time ample liquidity would make a major correction difficult. That indicates broadly a range-bound market, which is also pointed out by lower option IVs. IDBI recommends hedging below 4230 of Nifty.



Current series may come under pressure, avg CoC of next month series is 13.6%, short rollover may emerge as dominant activity will lead to further volatility: IDBI

In its report on Derivatives trading, IDBI says volatility was prevalent in the market as expected as the expiry is approaching. Index showed a negative movement due to long squaring in current series Therefore, cash side moved down by 0.3% while futures side lost 0.4% resulting in a discount of 11 basis.

Rollover completed for the day was 19% across the market while 18% in Nifty futures. This figure is inline with last series figure on the same day. Currently, rollover is being dominated by long positions until now which may turn upside down here onwards. Rollover has occurred significantly in the counters like ICICI Bank (39%), Satyam Computers (44%), Century Textiles (39%).

The current series may come under pressure due long squaring outpacing short covering. Average Cost of Carry (CoC) of next month series is 13.6%, which is definitely on higher side now. There is a possibility that short rollover may emerge as dominant activity will lead to further volatility.