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Expiry pressure to hit Street

Thursday, July 26, 2007

The markets opened on a weak note and stayed in the red as the negative overseas cues coupled with profit sales at higher levels kept the bulls at bay.

The key reversal on the current month Nifty futures that I mentioned yesterday had a desired bearish effect as the markets remained in a downward range.

The 4595 level, which was a Gann swing support advocated yesterday, was violated and triggered a faster fall as bears upped the ante.

The daily chart has shown a gravestone doji, as per japanese candle charts, the third such occurrence in the last seven trading sessions. These are indicators of selling pressure at advances as the upsides are witnessing a negative market breadth.

The indices have closed at the lower end of the intraday range as markets remained under profit taking pressure till the end.

The impending expiry of the July series had a cushioning effect as lower levels witnessed bear covering by short-term players.

The intraday range specified for Wednesday at the 4645 / 4595 was violated on the declines even as the upper level was not even tested.

That indicates a falling range as bulls unwind positions ahead of the expiry. The market breadth being negative as the combined exchange figures were 1155 : 2558.

The capitalisation of the same was also negative as the combined exchange turnover was Rs 7247 crore : Rs 10851 crore.

The outlook for the coming session is that of continued caution as the expiry-related pull and push forces are likely to exert their influence in the absolute near term. I continue to maintain my view that aggressive fresh initiatives must be avoided.

Posted by FR at 5:34 AM  


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