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Higher volatility expected as expiry nears

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

The markets opened on a firm footing and ended lower on profit sales as bulls lacked the fire power to sustain the buying momentum at higher levels.

Traded volumes were higher as intraday action picked up and the rollover process too had a bearing on the volumes in the near term.

The market breadth was negative as the BSE & NSE combined figures were 1222 : 2575 and the capitalisation of the same was positive as the commensurate figures were Rs 9761 crore : Rs 9462 crore.

The derivatives data for the previous session indicated a 2.42 per cent increase in net long positions - a sign of optimism ahead of the derivatives expiry.

The indices have closed at the lower end of the intraday range as higher levels in the session failed to attract fresh buying momentum needed to sustain the upmoves.

The daily chart shows a key reversal as the closing was lower than the opening, however the penetration of the bearish range was less than the median point of the previous session, which shows a routine profit selling as of now rather than a complete rout.

The intraday range specified for Tuesday was 4669 / 4569 and the Nifty was stuck well within these parameters as the upsides were laboured.

The coming session is likely to see a range of 4645 on advances and 4595 on declines. The 4595 level assumes significant importance as per Gann swing methods as a significant inflection point for the day traders.

The outlook for Wednesday is that of guarded optimism as the expiry is likely to bring with it higher volatility. Desist from initiating fresh big-ticket trades.

Posted by FR at 7:57 AM  


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Investment in equity shares has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective.The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. I, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and I am not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.& take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations given in this blog.