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Unwinding by short-term bulls seen ahead

Friday, July 13, 2007

The markets opened on a firm footing as was advocated in this column. The hypothesis of higher risk appetite due to a 2.29 per cent rise in net long positions yesterday in the F&O segment coupled with high volumes on Wednesday was vindicated.

The day proved to be what students of William's systems would call a "smash day pattern" on the daily chart. That the implied volatility on the sub-hourly charts escalated, further strengthening the bullish resolve. Traded volumes spiked higher on Thursday and coming on an uptick session, the development can be viewed as optimistic.

The market breadth was positive as the BSE & NSE combined advance decline ratio stood at 2566 : 1184 and the capitalisation of the same on a combined exchange basis stood at Rs 15315 crs : Rs 3686 crs.

The indices have closed at the upper end of the intraday session and the positive market breadth and increased volumes are adding to the optimism.

The Nifty is in a new trading zone and closed at a new all-time high. Bear covering is likely to keep the downsides capped and the trader interest is also likely to be positive in the near term.

The intraday resistance specified for the Nifty for Thursday at the 4428 levels was easily overcome as the index closed past this threshold comfortably. The coming session is likely to witness intraday levels of 4486 on advances and 4406 on declines.

Watch the market internals keenly for signs of commitment of traders. The outlook on the markets on Friday is that of continued optimism as the weekend session is likely to see some routine profit sales and unwinding by short term bulls. I advocate holding long positions for now.

Posted by FR at 7:54 AM  

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Investment in equity shares has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective.The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. I, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and I am not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.& take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations given in this blog.