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Asset Allocation Management Without Mutual Funds
Sunday, July 22, 2007
Many Investment Gurus, with a straight face and a gleam in their eye, will insist that successful investing is a function of expansive research, skillful market timing, and detailed technical analysis. Others emphasize fundamental information about companies, industries, and markets. But trends and numbers are secondary to a thorough understanding of the basic principles of Investing and Management, and their interrelationships. The ingredients for a successful investment portfolio are these: stubborn belief in the Quality, Diversification, and Income trinity from Investments 101, and operations that employ the Planning, Leading, Organizing, and Controlling skills introduced in Freshman Management. Here are some things to keep in mind while you season your experience with patience and marinate your investment process with discipline:
* A viable Investment Program begins with the private development of an Investment Plan. The first step is the identification of personal goals and objectives and a time frame for goal achievement. The end result should be a near autopilot, long-term and increasing, retirement income. Asset Allocation is used to structure the portfolio so that it operates in a goal directed manner. The finished Plan must be flexible in design, based upon reasonable expectations, simple in structure and operation, and easy to supervise.
* Use a "cost based" Asset Allocation Model. Although most of the Investment World operates on a Market Value basis for everything from performance analysis to Asset Allocation and Diversification decision modeling, you will improve your long-term results and stay within your allocation and diversification guidelines better by using a system based upon Working Capital. This widely unknown Asset Allocation "model" takes the hype out of daily stock market reporting and keeps the income investor's focus on appropriate statistics.
* Control your emotions, among other things. Clearly, fear and greed are the two that require the most control in the investment environment... particularly in these days of a reckless media, Internet empowered scam merchants, high-speed information gathering/processing, and cheap personalized trading capabilities. Love and hate need to be dealt with as well, but there are fewer out-of-body influences on these. Only strictly disciplined decision makers need apply for your Investment Management position... and you may not be the ideal candidate. Investment Management is a continual responsibility, not a weekend and occasional evenings avocation.
* Avoid hindsightful analysis, and uninformed (or salesperson) criticism. It is painfully comical how hindsight has taken over in our society... in sports, finance, politics, and the professions, everywhere... everyone you hear is second-guessing and finger pointing. No one is willing to take responsibility for their own actions and everyone is willing to sue whoever coulda', woulda' or shoulda' prevented whatever happened. Investors cannot afford to be Little League crybabies. Make one of the three basic decisions (which are?) and don't look back. No person or program can predict the future, and your portfolio requires management today. The playing field for the investment game is uncertainty.
* Establish a profit-taking target for every security you purchase. The purpose of investing is to make more money than you could in a guaranteed, non-negotiable instrument. This larger money making expectation comes with an assumption of some form of risk... there are several, and its "in there" in all investments. In Equities, set a reasonable profit target and take less if you can get it quickly. With income investments, never say no to a profit equal to a year's income, or 10% if you like round numbers. There are always new investment opportunities, and there is no such thing as a bad profit... or a good loss.
* Examine Market Value numbers at intelligent intervals. Frequent examination is stressful and non-productive. There are no averages or indices that compare with a properly diversified Investment Portfolio, particularly if your Equity selections are screened for Quality and Income. Investing is a long-term endeavor, and neither Shock(sic) Market symbols nor current yields operate on a calendar year schedule. Look at market peaks and troughs over significant time periods that include "cycles"... and do separate your analysis by class.
* Avoid what the crowd is doing and shun investment products. Consumers buy products; Investors buy securities. The crowd is driven by the very emotions that you must learn to control. Stay focused on your plan; analyze your annual income and trading statistics. Buy and hold creates more real tax problems than real millionaires, and gimmicks and fads last just slightly longer than spring fashions. Always buy good stuff on bad news and sell into good news announcements.
* Don't try to save the world with your investment decisions. Never limit your investment opportunities artificially. Votes work better when it comes to changing your world, and corporations should not be the targets of your political hates... get rid of incumbents, state and local, until there are changes in the tax code, social security, tort law, environmental issues, etc. In the meantime, invest with your head, not your heart. The business of a capitalist society is...
* Keep in mind that you need Income to pay the bills, and that your cost of living in retirement will be higher than you think. If you insist on some income from every Equity security you ever own, and beat-the-bank income from income securities, you will obtain two important things: An annually increasing cash flow that will rise at a rate greater than most normal inflation rates, and a higher quality investment portfolio for better long-term investment performance. (If you use a cost based Asset Allocation model with at least 30% invested in income securities and no open end Mutual Funds or Index ETFs.) Never settle for tiny short-term yields or get hooked on those that are unsustainably high.
* Investing is not a competitive event, ever. You don't need to beat the market. You need to accomplish a set of personalized goals. Not even your twin's portfolio should be the same as yours. The faster you run, the less likely it is that you will succeed over time. Big risks, foolproof gimmicks, and exotic computer programs occasion more failures than success stories. Remember the Investment gods? They created Stocks and Bonds... only Stocks and Bonds!
* Avoid Unrealized Gains, Embrace Volatility, Increase Annual Income, and remember that all key investment moments are only visible in rear view mirrors. Most unrealized gains become Schedule D realized losses. As of today there has never been a correction (rally) that has not succumbed to the next rally (correction). Only an increasing income level can beat back inflation... a bigger market value number just doesn't do it.
Why Do Stock Prices Go Up And Down?
Stocks go up because more people want to buy than sell. When this happens they begin to bid higher prices than the stock has been currently trading. On the other side of the same coin, stocks go down because more people want to sell than buy. In order to quickly sell their shares, they are willing to accept a lower price.
Having said this, we'll take a look at the various reasons that cause traders to want to buy or sell a stock.
It is possible to look at the financial statements of a company and determine what the company is worth. Investors who take this approach are said to examine the company's "fundamentals". They attempt to find an undervalued stock - one that is trading below it's "book value". They feel that sooner or later other traders will realize that the company is worth more than the current price and begin bidding it up.
Another investment psychology it called the "technical approach". This is when traders closely examine charts of the stock's past performance looking for trends that they feel will be repeated in the near future. These traders also look at what is happening in the market as a whole trying to anticipate the effect it will have on an individual stock.
Sometimes companies trade at half their "book value" while at other times they may trade at double, triple, or even higher. When this happens it can create some sudden and large price swings. This volatility is what makes it possible to make large profits in the market. It is also responsible for huge losses.
The stock market is essentially a giant auction where ownership of large companies is for sale. If some investors think that a particular company will be a good investment, they are willing to bid the price up. By the same token, when many investors want to sell a stock at the same time the supply will exceed the demand and the price will drop.
Watching the stock market can be likened to watching a ball bounce. It goes up and comes down and then goes right back up. This can be extremely frustrating for many investors who want it to go up in a steady pattern. It is this volatility in the market as a whole and in the individual stocks that the experienced trader profits from. In the absence of a lot of experience, the individual investor needs a proven source of information and direction. The daily stock market recommendations from www.stock4today.com can supply this need.
Many investors (as opposed to traders) have a "buy and hold" philosophy. This would work well in a constantly rising market. Unfortunately, the stock market does not go up in a straight line. There are ups and downs that frustrate this type of investor. Today many investors have become "traders" who buy and sell on the fluctuations of the market and the individual stocks. These traders make money in any market - up or down!
Another well known investment site www.fool.com lists the following reasons for stocks going up and down:
Why Stocks Go Up
* growing sales and profits
* a great new president hired to run the company
* an exciting new product or service is introduced
* more exciting new products or services are expected
* the company lands a big new contract
* a great review of a new product in the press or on TV
* the company is going to split its stock
* scientists discover the product is good for something else
* some famous investor is buying shares
* lots of people are buying shares
* an analyst upgrades the company, changing her recommendation from, for instance, "buy" to "strong buy"
* other stocks in the same industry go up
* a competitor's factory burns down
* the company wins a lawsuit
* more people are buying the product or service
* the company expands globally and starts selling in other countries
* the industry is "hot" -- people expect big things for good reasons
* the industry is "hot" -- people don't understand much about it, but they're buying anyway
* the company is bought by another company
* the company might be bought by another company
* the company is going to spin-off part of itself as a new company
* rumors
* for no reason at all
Why Stocks Go Down
* profits slipping, sales slipping
* top executives leave the company
* a famous investor sells shares of the company
* an analyst downgrades his recommendation of the stock, maybe from "buy" to "hold"
* the company loses a major customer
* lots of people are selling shares
* a factory burns down
* other stocks in the same industry go down
* another company introduces a better product
* there's a supply shortage, so not enough of the product can be made
* a big lawsuit is filed against the company
* scientists discover the product is not safe
* fewer people are buying the product
* the industry used to be "hot," but now another industry is more popular
* some new law might hurt sales or profits
* a powerful company enters the business
* rumors
* no reason at all




