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Mkts end low: Will Q1 FY08 direct mkts now?
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
With F&O rollover and weakish global cues looming large, the markets traded with a negative bias through the session - autos, metals led the slide, posting considerable losses.
The Nifty closed at 4,264 down 22 points, while the Sensex shut shop at 14,431 down 70 points.
The markets ended weak on account of selling pressure in scrips across sectors. Most of the Asia ended weak, Nikkei and Hang Seng enclosed with deep cuts. Even Europe opened in red.
Most of the BSE indices ended weak or flat. With steel prices likely to stay weak, the metal index was the top loser followed by auto, banking and oil & gas stocks. Only IT index closed in green. The broader markets could not hold their gains at the higher levels and ended flat.
Kalpesh Parekh, ASK Raymond James feels that this type of volatility will continue in the markets next month too. He expects the market to correct in July and feels that the 100-200 points rangebound movement that one saw in June on the Nifty, may be broken.
"You will probably find some direction for the market, because we are now moving towards the results season. So there will be a lot of expectations with which we will be entering this season. A lot of movements are expected in various sectors, people are building their expectation for certain sectors. So I think it would be a similarly volatile month," he said.
Sectorally, he added, “On the IT, auto, cement and banking front, we are getting a feeling that the numbers would not be as exciting as what the market is expecting at the beginning of the quarter. There would be more disappointment in the first quarter. We are expecting some amount of recovery to take place at the end of the second quarter. But the first and second quarter would probably not be as impressive this fiscal to begin with.”
Rahul Mohindar from Viratechindia.com says that he would certainly rollover a long position.
He said, “ 4,270 was a key level on the Nifty; I think we have been pretty steady around those levels if not breaking through them. So one would rollover and I would bet for 4,400 plus in July or 15,000 plus. So it’s going to possibly be a good first half for maybe the whole month of July. We are upbeat on the market. A lot of frontline stocks - we are waiting for some key levels to break out for, and that is what’s going to give the market some direction.”
Parekh feels that there is still a lot of value left out in the midcap space.
“Since the valuation gap between the large and midcap stocks had widened during the last 3-4 months, there is still some room left on the midcap front. So we are recommending certain stocks in the midcap front, wherever we find value still left, plus there are a couple of big NFOs which are also there on the midcap front which will also put lot of weightage on good midcap ideas. So there will be good action in the midcap space in the coming days” he opined.
He added that most of the fund managers with whom his firm is talking to, are taking more stock-specific calls, rather than taking a call on the market.
“Most of the fund managers are asking for more and more ideas, whether it is large or mid, they are just asking for more ideas. They are not taking a call on the market because it is becoming difficult day by day to speculate on taking a call on market. But yes everybody, overall they are cautious and they don’t want to get carried away at the current level because valuation wise nothing is that attractive from the current level,” Parekh said. He thinks that liquidity that is arriving in the markets will give it a push.
Ved Prakash Chaturvedi of Tata Mutual Fund said, “Our sense is that Indian market will remain in a trading band. The upside is capped, because valuations are already high. There is global concern on certain sectors; the sub-prime mortgage and few others. While the market would react to June quarter numbers, our sense is that the numbers would be largely in line with expectations, barring a few disappointments. The market, I am afraid, is in a bit of a boring phase; it is on a trading band. We will remain in that band, largely the story would be bottom up and few companies which will outperform.”