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DLF will not get 'Vishal' listing: Experts
Wednesday, July 4, 2007
After receiving overwhelming response to its 100% book built initial public offering (IPO) of DLF, India's largest real estate development company, will list on the bourses with 1,68,91,14,240 shares on July 5, 2007. The offer price was fixed at Rs 525 per share.
The stock will be a part of NSE F&O segment; futures lot size of 400 shares; options strike priced between Rs 20-1120.
Analysts are expecting the DLF listing will be around Rs 545-600 and advices to hold for next two years.
Analysts give their respective views on DLF listing.
Rajesh Jain of Pranav Securities says, “The DLF issue has been marketed very well. I would be very surprised if we don’t see a +100 on the offer price. If you look at all the developments at the time of the offering, the infrastructure tie-up with a foreign major, as many as 14 infrastructure projects already under construction, you have the Hilton tie-up, you have a host of new businesses coming up and that I think makes the DLF business model even more robust.”
He further added, “You take the entire land bank and the valuation of the land bank is close to Rs 550 per share. Now if you compare that with the largest currently listed stock, Unitech, at 1.2 to 1.3 times, the stock easily be able to give a Rs 100 gain tomorrow. And if you look at the appetite, which would be not satisfied enough, there would be good buying taking place in the initial hours, and all the big names of the financial sector associated with such an offering. I would be very disappointed and surprised if we don’t get a +100 at least.”
“Going forward, after the initial pop I think the stock has strong merits. Like I said, fairly strengthened business model and the land bank and the formidable name that DLF has, particularly in the Northern Indian markets, would ensure that investors would not lose even if they get in at the pop tomorrow. I would certainly recommend a stay invested if you have got this stock and you could even be adventurous and play the momentum game tomorrow and buy for short, quick profit targets", he said.
RS Iyer of KR Choksey says, "DLF is expected to list at around Rs 545-550 and remain stable there. Investors can book partial profits on listing and balance hold for the next six months.
Manish Bhatt of Prabhudas Lilladher feels that DLF will list in the range of Rs 525-600. Investors should hold the stock with two years perspective.
Investment Advisor, SP Tulsian says, “The demand or the appetite for the stock should be quite good. I am expecting that it could probably list at anywhere between Rs 560 to Rs 565. Thereafter probably, due to the good overseas appetite of the FIIs, the shares will probably run up from that level.”
On the HNIs front, he says, “There was little caution on the part of the HNIs. They probably thought that the issue might get listed below the issue price and that would be an entry point for them. Definitely there will be a strong demand from the overseas buyers and investors.”
He further added, “If it reaches to Rs 600 level, the chances of sustaining at those levels are 80%. That means there’s probably 20% chances that it would get corrected because this is the largest company and promoters’ stake and the fortunes are linked to the market performance of this.”
Nilesh Shah, CIO of ICICI Prudential says, “DLF has the onerous responsibility of leading the rerating of the real estate sector. They are a giant company, their products and projects are well known. So there is no worry on the execution capabilities side or on the management side. The worry is clearly on the valuation side.”
He further added, “If DLF adopts principles and practices of say someone like Infosys in the corporate governance and disclosure and investor servicing, I am sure, it will go a long way in not only getting a good rating for itself, but also changing or showing the way for the entire real estate sector. Real estate world over is a fairly large component of the index and I see an onerous responsibility on DLF to take that charge and make real estate a large component of Indian market capitalization also.”
Ashu Madan, National Head of Religare says, “I am not too excited about DLF’s listing and don’t see any move on either side. It’s quite on predictable lines. Backed by that listing, all the momentum, which was to come on the realty stocks, is already more or less in place. So I don’t see much movement left in realty stocks.”
The IPO, comprised of 175 million shares at a price band of Rs 500-550, subscribed approximately 2.75 times at the top end of the price band (Rs 550 per share). At Rs 550 per share, the QIB portion was subscribed 3.94 times. The retail portion was 0.96 times subscribed and the non – institutional was subscribed 1.08 times.
Overall, DLF issue subscribed 3.47 times. Qualified institutional investors were the major supporter to the issue, in which contribution was seen from FIIs.
The global coordinators to the issue were Kotak Investment Banking and DSP Merrill Lynch. Lehman Brothers was the senior book running lead manager to the issue. The book running lead manager to the issue were Citi, Deutsche, ICICI Securities Primary Dealership and UBS. SBI Capital was the co-book running lead manger to the issue.