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DSP Merrill Lynch - Industry Overview (Telecom Services-Wireless/Cellular)
Monday, April 16, 2007
DSP Merrill Lynch - Industry Overview (Telecom Services-Wireless/Cellular)
GSM net adds up strongly in March ’07
GSM subscriber additions for Mar ‘07 totaled ~6.13mn, up 26% MoM and 53% YoY. As of Mar ’07, India’s GSM sub base totaled ~121mn, up 75% YoY. On the CDMA side, data for Tata Tele & circle-wise details for Reliance Com are awaited.
Final word on subscriber reverification awaited
The GSM industry’s press release accompanying the March data is silent on the issue of subscriber reverification post the government’s reverification deadline of 31st March ‘07. We are uncertain whether all of the GSM operators have reported a fully verified subscriber base for March ‘07. Last week, Reliance Communication (a predominantly CDMA operator), announced deactivation of ~5mn subs to meet the government’s requirements.
BSNL net adds double, year-end effect likely in play
Across the industry, BSNL posted the highest net adds of ~2mn subs in Mar ’07, compared with its average monthly run rate of ~0.75mn subs over Apr-Feb ’07. Sharp rise in March (fiscal year-end) performance has been a trend with BSNL over the last several years and likely offers little signaling value for the industry’s competitive landscape. BSNL’s sub base totaled ~27mn as of Mar ’07.
Private operators also hold fort
Except Idea Cellular, all GSM operators reported flat-to-higher net adds for Mar ’07. Bharti added 1.7mn subs, flat MoM; Bharti’s mobile sub base totaled ~37mn as of Mar ’07. Hutch-Essar added 1.1mn subs, up 18% MoM; their sub base now totals ~26mn. Most other operators like Spice, Reliance (GSM), MTNL & Aircel also reported flat-to-higher net adds; Idea was the sole exception with a 35% MoM decline in net adds for the month.
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GSM subscriber additions for Mar ‘07 totaled ~6.13mn, up 26% MoM and 53% YoY. As of Mar ’07, India’s GSM sub base totaled ~121mn, up 75% YoY. On the CDMA side, data for Tata Tele & circle-wise details for Reliance Com are awaited.
Final word on subscriber reverification awaited
The GSM industry’s press release accompanying the March data is silent on the issue of subscriber reverification post the government’s reverification deadline of 31st March ‘07. We are uncertain whether all of the GSM operators have reported a fully verified subscriber base for March ‘07. Last week, Reliance Communication (a predominantly CDMA operator), announced deactivation of ~5mn subs to meet the government’s requirements.
BSNL net adds double, year-end effect likely in play
Across the industry, BSNL posted the highest net adds of ~2mn subs in Mar ’07, compared with its average monthly run rate of ~0.75mn subs over Apr-Feb ’07. Sharp rise in March (fiscal year-end) performance has been a trend with BSNL over the last several years and likely offers little signaling value for the industry’s competitive landscape. BSNL’s sub base totaled ~27mn as of Mar ’07.
Private operators also hold fort
Except Idea Cellular, all GSM operators reported flat-to-higher net adds for Mar ’07. Bharti added 1.7mn subs, flat MoM; Bharti’s mobile sub base totaled ~37mn as of Mar ’07. Hutch-Essar added 1.1mn subs, up 18% MoM; their sub base now totals ~26mn. Most other operators like Spice, Reliance (GSM), MTNL & Aircel also reported flat-to-higher net adds; Idea was the sole exception with a 35% MoM decline in net adds for the month.
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Investment in equity shares has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective.The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. I, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and I am not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.& take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations given in this blog.
